The calibration ledger for ai-bubble — pre-registered signals, the shadow realization forecast, the forced-truth calendar, and the Brier track that scores them. Pre-registration only confers credibility if it is witnessed; this is the witness. Registration & semantics →
confirming = marginal-buyer cracking · contra = funding window open · neutral = between thresholds · stale / insufficient = the honest non-answer. Auto-evaluated from keyless public sources; compound criteria are human-adjudicated against these.
P(a realized cluster distress event within the crack window). Runs beside the gated structural verdict (0.67), not instead of it — a different quantity (a datable forecast vs a structural confidence). Two pathways, noisy-OR combined, so the funding-window- closes-first route (fiber 1999) is first-class. How it decomposes →
The dates that confirm, kill, or re-card a claim. The system fires these as tickets; nothing rests on memory.
The market-implied model recovered by reverse-DCF (sensitivity bands). Method →